We are early in the caucus/primary season for the Democratic Party. This is the beginning of how the party chooses it’s delegates and eventual nominee for president this summer. The delegates are locked into their assigned candidate, at least on the 1st round of voting during the summer convention.
To win the Democratic Party nomination the candidate needs to get 1991 delegates/votes. If this happens on the 1st round of voting due to the results of the caucuses and primaries then that candidate did extremely well. However, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen just yet.
Senator Bernie Sanders is doing well. He is getting about 1/3 of the available delegates in each contest. While the remaining delegates get split up between all of the other candidates that are running. If this rate holds through the entire caucus/primary season then Senator Sanders wont have enough delegates/votes to win in the 1st round. He will be over 650 delegate/votes short of that goal.
In the 2nd round of voting, the powerful block of Democratic superdelegates are able to vote. They are not locked into any one candidate. This powerful block gives 771 votes. But right now Senator Bernie Sanders is only supported by 23 of them. Still not enough to win the nomination.
The regular delegates will have to be freed from their pre-assigned voting block before there is a clear winner. And it might not be Senator Sanders. There will be backroom deals cut during the convention so there is a strong enough block of delegates supporting one candidate to get the nomination. When it comes down to the delegates and deals at a convention the nomination is wide open. Even the 5th place loser can become the winner.
I am predicting it wont be Senator Sanders. He isn’t really a Democratic Party member, he always runs as an independent for this Senate seat. He does have a strong following of useful idiots that don’t know why or who everything is free but they like it. But that wont be enough for Bernie to win the nomination. The Democratic Party base still has a strong moderate lean to it. And a hardcore Socialist rubs them the wrong way.