Republican National Convention

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As we move into the last primary of May, Donald Trump is just 68 delegates short of the 1237 needed to have the nomination all wrapped up before the convention in July. It includes today’s (May 24th) primary and the last primaries on June 7th. There are 347 delegates available. It should be an easy win for The Donald.

But as the saying goes, ‘the opera isn’t over until the fat lady sings.’ In this case that “opera” is the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And the “fat lady” is the first round voting where the delegates are bound to vote according to their state’s popular vote.

One would think it would be a formality. Donald Trump will have the delegates and therefore should have the nomination. But other forces are at work in this election cycle that would like to change that outcome.

The “establishment” doesn’t want a nominee or President that cannot be bought or controlled by the party’s string pullers. And Donald Trump is the only candidate out of the 17 that holds that distinction. Not being able to pull those strings leads to a questionable future for these establishment insiders. They would be in danger of loosing their jobs and power.

Then there is the #CruzCrew faction of the GOP that believes in the Holy Cruzade of their cult leader Ted Cruz. And Ted Cruz has stated since the beginning that he would do anything to win. For the #CruzCrew, the ends do justify the means.

We saw him lie his way to a victory in the First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. By spreading a false rumor against Dr. Ben Carson’s campaign. He attempted to cheat John Kasich in Indiana by having Kasich supporters vote for Cruz instead. This backfired on the Senator causing him to “suspend” his campaign. And in lawyer-speak that will be used to reassert his candidacy at the convention.

Ted Cruz has courted the delegates in many states, even before his campaign was suspended. He has not endorsed Mr Trump. He is keeping alive his own bid still for the White House. Silently waiting until the convention.

I have not attended a GOP convention or meeting where someone has not attempted to change the rules. And the National Convention will not be an exception.

I firmly believe and predict that the Cruz faction will attempt to change the rules at this year’s convention. They will attempt to remove the bound delegates so they can freely vote against the will of the people in the first round. Thus changing the nominee from Donald Trump to Ted Cruz.

Those in the Cruz camp will do this because they mistakenly believe that this action will unify the party behind Ted Cruz. And it will lead to a victory for the Republican Party in November. Both of these thoughts are out of touch with the voters. It will lead to the death of the Republican Party and a Democrat victory if allowed to happen.

Mathematically Out

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When it reached the point that it became mathematically impossible for John Kasich to win the GOP nomination he was told such by Ted Cruz. Senator Cruz advised Kasich to drop out and he could find a place for him in the Cruz Administration.

If Ted Cruz was, as he claims, a man of honor and principles. That he can be “TrusTed”. Then Senator Cruz, who is now mathematically unable to win the GOP nomination should take the high road and drop out.

Despite Ted’s failings Donald Trump will forgive him. And will have a place for him in the Trump Administration. There is a spot or two where he would do very well.

But you cannot really trust Ted. He will not do the right thing. He will not do what he asks of others to do, because Ted Cruz covets the presidency.

And following the advise of his father, Ted Cruz will do anything to get the presidency. For him the ends DO justify the means.

It seems the rules only apply to those who stand in the way of Ted Cruz.

3rd Party Runs

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This is going to be the year of 3rd Party runs. Something no one predicted going into this race for the White House.

One the progressive side we have Hillary Clinton as the front-runner and possible nominee of the Democratic Party. There is enough grassroots support for Bernie Sanders to be a write-in or 3rd Party candidate if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.

Likewise on the conservative side we have Donald Trump as the front-runner and possible nominee of the Republican Party. There are deep rifts in the GOP and the candidates are all backing out of their pledge to support the nominee.

There is talk among the Ted Cruz supporters for a 3rd Party run or possible write-in campaign. Even John Kasich isn’t ruling out such a move.

This could turn out to be a very interesting race once the nominees are chosen. Maybe even the US House could end up electing the US President in 2016.

2 man race

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Looking over the numbers for delegates needed and available for the GOP nomination. This really is a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. The majority of the remaining delegates are in winner-take-all states.

Kasich has no chance at all in this race. Even if he wins his home state of Ohio. That’s only 66 more delegates. He would finally break over 100 at that point. But to win the nomination he needs 1,183 more delegates out of the 1,435 remaining delegates. Kasich would have to win all of the 17 winner-take-all states and the majority of the remaining states. So Kasich needs a miracle to win at this point.

Rubio is doing better than Kasich. But he too would need the 99 delegates from his home state of Florida and the rest of the winner-take-all states just like Kasich. Rubio has a better chance than Kasich but its still a long-shot. And not a bet I would take.

Cruz, the only contender to Trump, is going to have to sweep the winner-take-all states as well. He needs 878 delegates to get the nomination. 898 are available in the 17 winner-take-all states. Cruz will fall short if he doesn’t get all of these states. He just doesn’t have enough delegates at this point.

Trump on the other hand has the winning cards right now. He is ahead in delegates and by popular vote as well. But he still needs 779 more delegates to get the nomination. If Trump can get the majority of the proportional states and half of the winner-take-all states he can win the nomination. Given Trump’s current record this is very much a possibility.

With all four candidates in the race up to the GOP convention it is highly likely that Donald Trump will be that nominee.

Grading the Candidates

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The Des Moines Register had an online scorecard to find out who one should support in the upcoming caucus. Even though I am fairly decided already, I thought I would take the quiz to see where my candidates stand.

This is of course just using the information provided in the Des Moines Register. Well known for not being kind to the conservative movement or the Republican party.

There are 9 issues and several parts to each. And you must agree or disagree with the candidates position listed. In some cased the candidate has no position listed. I will admit on these I generally gave the candidate the benefit of the doubt, but not always.

Here are my results (out of a possible score of 900)

Cruz: 830
Huckabee: 836
Carson: 786
Trump: 746
Fiorina: 696
Paul: 690
Santorum: 608
Rubio: 561
Christie: 546
Kasich: 363
Bush: 307
Sanders: 114
Clinton: 14
O’Malley: 0

Using a standard % grading scale. Cruz and Huckabee have A’s. Carson and Trump have B’s. Fiorina and Paul have C’s. Santorum, Rubio, and Christie have D’s. And the rest all have F’s.

Now these points/grades are just based alone on the Des Moines Register’s questions and information. Nothing of my own from speaking with, hearing the candidates during the debate, prayer about the candidates and gut instinct. That does change the grade.