There is a lot of confusion this election cycle when it comes to choosing the Republican nominee for President. We have a lot of first time participants and candidates this time around. So I hope this can clear up some confusion.
Remember that our government and political structure is that of a republic. We are not a direct democracy. The people vote for other people who will represent them. The popular vote in the caucus and primaries isn’t to determine the winner. It’s determine who will represent the people.
The delegates to the National Convention are chosen by and from the delegates at the State and District Conventions. And those delegates are chosen by and from the County Convention delegates, who are in turn elected by those attending the local caucus. In a primary state, there would be a slight difference of course.
The RNC sets the rules that the state parties must follow. This cycles rules were that delegates to the National Convention would be bound by the votes during the caucus or primary. How many rounds of voting are binding is up to the states. For most it’s just the 1st round, for others it can and is higher.
In the case of Colorado, they didn’t have a vote during the caucus, so no delegates were bound by vote. The delegates were bound by other criteria during their District and State Conventions.
This is where Donald Trump made his biggest error in the campaign. Once the voting was done at the caucus or primary, he pulled out of that state. It’s easy to understand why. Donald Trump isn’t a politician, he is a business man. In business once the board votes, it’s a done deal. But this is not true in politics at all. There is still a lot of dealing to be done after the vote. This is to secure delegates who will vote for your nomination in all rounds if possible.
Ted Cruz on the other hand is a born politician. He wants the presidency more than anything else. He stayed in those states in force to covet the delegates to his favor. If he can’t win on the 1st round, he will take it in the 2nd round at the National Convention.
Donald Trump only has 2 options. Come into the National Convention with the needed 1237 bound delegates. This will secure the nomination on the 1st and only round. Or attempt a rules change before the nomination voting begins. The first option is the best of course as a rules change can cause more problems.
For Ted Cruz, he has no chance of coming into the National Convention with the needed 1237 bound delegates. His plan is that Donald Trump wont have the needed delegates either and win on 2nd round ballot when the majority of the delegates become unbound. Failing that, he might also attempt a rules change before the voting. He could hope to unbound the delegates on the 1st round of voting even if Trump has the 1237 delegates. Or his chosen delegates could just vote for him on the 1st round anyway, breaking the rules.
In my experience attending multiple County, District, and State Conventions. Rules change attempts happen all the time. Most are shot down. So an attempt can very well be made. And it’s possible for it to pass.
Ted Cruz has been stacking the deck with his delegates. This gives him a good edge if there is a 2nd round vote. It can also help him if there is a motion to change the rules in his favor.
These are both plans that Ted Cruz and his team are considering. If I was in his position, I would make similar plans. Either way he can get the nomination if these plans work in his favor. And his odds are good since he has courted the delegates.