Looking over the numbers for delegates needed and available for the GOP nomination. This really is a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. The majority of the remaining delegates are in winner-take-all states.
Kasich has no chance at all in this race. Even if he wins his home state of Ohio. That’s only 66 more delegates. He would finally break over 100 at that point. But to win the nomination he needs 1,183 more delegates out of the 1,435 remaining delegates. Kasich would have to win all of the 17 winner-take-all states and the majority of the remaining states. So Kasich needs a miracle to win at this point.
Rubio is doing better than Kasich. But he too would need the 99 delegates from his home state of Florida and the rest of the winner-take-all states just like Kasich. Rubio has a better chance than Kasich but its still a long-shot. And not a bet I would take.
Cruz, the only contender to Trump, is going to have to sweep the winner-take-all states as well. He needs 878 delegates to get the nomination. 898 are available in the 17 winner-take-all states. Cruz will fall short if he doesn’t get all of these states. He just doesn’t have enough delegates at this point.
Trump on the other hand has the winning cards right now. He is ahead in delegates and by popular vote as well. But he still needs 779 more delegates to get the nomination. If Trump can get the majority of the proportional states and half of the winner-take-all states he can win the nomination. Given Trump’s current record this is very much a possibility.
With all four candidates in the race up to the GOP convention it is highly likely that Donald Trump will be that nominee.